First day of school made me semangat to type this entry hahah! It may follow through or not. Well, just for me to recap and those interested to read on.
Investment is a current commitment of funds for a period of time in order to derive returns or future payments that will compensate for time, expected rate of inflation and uncertainty of future flow of funds. Individuals invest to earn returns from savings due to their deferred consumption. In other words, they opt to trade off present consumption for a larger future consumption. Returns represents compensation or an increase in wealth from holding a security over a given period of time. Returns come in the form of dividend income or capital gains derived from a change in the price of the security. Proper evaluation of different assets that we wish to include in our investment portfolio would mean that we have to accurately compare their historical rates of return. However, we need to note that the historical price of a stock does not provide an accurate projection of its future price. It is used in a way as a benchmark to compare different assets to make general estimations of their relative performance. Appropriate benchmarking is important to reflect an individual's risk class. If an investor is risk averse and opt to invest in government bonds, studying the STI index as a benchmark would be inappropriate. A measure of the historical rates of return is the Holding Period Return (HPR). HPR is the ending value of the investment over the beginning value of the investment. Assuming a $200 investment at the beginning of the year which was raised to $220 at the end of the year, the HPR will be 1.1 (ie. > 1). HPR > 1 means there is a positive change in wealth. Accordingly, HPR < 1 means there is a negative change in wealth and HPR = 1 means there is no change in wealth. Although HPR can be < 1, it can never be negative as a $200 investment can only be reduced to $0, meaning total loss in investment cannot exceed $200 if that is the amount of funds we pumped into the investment. A better measure of historical rates of return however would be the Holding Period Yield. HPY = HPR - 1. Suppose you have a set of annual rates of return (HPRs or HPYs) for an investment, we can measure the mean annual return arithmetically or geometrically. Geometric Mean Return (GM) is always superior to Arithmetic Mean Return (AM) because GM compound interest earned throughout the year unlike AM which calculate only the simple interest. As such, AM is always biased upwards. It is best used as an expected value for an individual year, while GM is the best measure of an asset's long term performance. What is important to note here as an investor is not to be easily fooled by statistics and numbers. For instance, say Company A's funds lost 90% during a year and rose by 92% the next year. Arithmetically, the company's funds increased by 1% on average over the two years. However, say if you invest $1000 at the beginning of the first year. By the end of the second year, your investment would have actually fall to $192 instead of rising. Just some little but very important things to be wary of when considering investments in the future. (:
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